The Fundamentals Are Improving, And The PTA Market Is Going To Boom Again?

On Monday, under the popular polyester production and marketing in the lower reaches of the market, the price of polyester factories rose sharply, resulting in PTA being maintained at a high level.

After several high-yield sales, the polyester plant has obvious inventory, short term polyester prices are relatively down, but the terminal market is not strong. The cost side PX price is weak recently. It is expected that PTA prices will remain high in the short term, but the room for improvement is limited.

The cost side is weak and the support is weak.

After entering June, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend. trend 。 Although most members of the OPEC+ joint production supervision committee (JMMC) tend to extend the oil production reduction agreement, which is good for the crude oil market, no specific policy recommendations have yet been announced.

In the short term, the international situation is unrest, the price of crude oil is weak, the market is not optimistic, the cost side still has great downside pressure, and the PX new device is put into operation, but the production reduction plan has not yet made substantial progress. It is expected that the back market of PX is still weak, and the price of PTA is weak. Later, we focused on the outcome of the OPEC conference.

Supply side stabilized, overhaul increased

In June, the accident PTA device stopped running frequently. As of June 14th, the PTA utilization rate was 88.57% (last week 83.15%). According to the data, Fuhua 4 million 500 thousand tons / year PTA device is currently open for inspection and maintenance in July 3rd. And today, Ya Dong Petrochemical 700 thousand tons / year PTA device plans to stop tonight because of the reason, plans to restart on Wednesday.

However, as the price of PX moves down, PTA production profit is gradually rising. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of large plant maintenance, such as the 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PTA plant maintenance plan of Hengli Petrochemical Company in the near future.

Demand is strong and market is limited.

On the basis of last week's production and sales rate of 100%, some of the big silk mills on Monday made a tentative rise in prices, making the market trade mentality positive. Under this influence, the term price of PTA has increased. However, the terminal market is still in the traditional off-season, loom load declines slightly, while weaving inventory is still at a high level, and terminal replenishment efforts and sustainability are not good enough to drag upstream market performance.

However, the downstream polyester plant experienced less pressure after initial inventory, short term pet products were relatively resistant, and polyester factories had a strong price trend.

What is the future trend of PTA?

To sum up, the supply side PX continues to fall in the new year's new low, the failure of domestic PTA devices is constantly increasing, and the new maintenance plan is increasing. PTA supply is expected to be reduced. The demand side polyester market has warmed up, and the polyester device has been restarted, and the short-term demand has remained stable. But we still need to pay attention to the change of terminal demand.

Therefore, we believe that the market is short of continuous good, short term PTA market or high volatility, the terminal textile market is not strong will inhibit the rise of PTA. (source: Founder metaphase, China Industrial Economic Information Network)